Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) has an insurmountable lead over her Republican opponent, Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ), and will be the next United States Senator from Arizona, according to the Cook Political Report.

Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in #AZSEN. This thing has been over for a while.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2018

Although partial returns showed McSally with a slight lead on election night, the sun rose the next day with many ballots still uncounted in Democratic leaning areas of the state. As of this writing, Sinema now enjoys a 1.5 percentage point lead over McSally, with some ballots still left to count.

Sinema will be the first Democratic senator from Arizona since Sen. Dennis DeConcini left office in 1995.

Though Sinema’s election is obviously good news for Democrats, the 2018 election results highlighted the massive structural advantages Republicans enjoy due to Senate malapportionment. Democratic House candidates are on track to win the national popular vote by as much as 7 points, yet Republicans gained seats in the Senate.


Red Wyoming, with only 573,720 people, receives the same number of senators as blue California, despite the fact that California has nearly 40 million people. Due to this structural advantage for small states, which are more likely to support Republicans over Democrats, the Republican “majority” will represent at least 14 million fewer people than the Democratic “minority” in the incoming Senate.

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