JPMorgan Chase & Co. informed investors on Monday that they should prepare for rising odds that President Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020.
Company strategist Marko Kolanovic indicated that although most investors were preparing for a Joe Biden win, they should be aware of the growing trends in Trump’s favor. Biden still leads Trump by a slim margin in many polls, but Kolanovic warned that poll bias could miss a five to ten point unseen gap for Trump.
“Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even – largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls,” Kolanovic wrote according to Bloomberg News.
He noted that shifting public opinion against the ongoing riots in America’s major cities could help Trump as well as an improvement in coronavirus numbers.
JPMORGAN: “Trump’s re-election chances are rising, .. due to two effects: 1) the impact of the degree of violence in protests on public opinion and voting patterns and 2) a bias in polls due to Trump voters being more likely to decline or mislead polls.” – @MarkoKolanovic4 pic.twitter.com/kGTDMKElWp
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 31, 2020
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic continued. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG.”
He acknowledged that many aspects of the 2020 race could still change, in particular, the three presidential debates scheduled for September and October.